Rise
of Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda, its international terrorist agenda, its current
status, Pakistan’s role in the spread of terrorism, and US-Pakistan and
India-Pakistan relations
One man changed the
face of international terrorism in the world: Osama bin Laden, the Saudi
Arabian scion of an illustrious family that had become close to the Saudi Royal
family. An engineer by profession and heir to a huge fortune, he was deeply
religious. Though there are accounts that Osama fastidiously followed the Salafi/Wahabi
brand of Islam that was practiced in Saudi Arabia, these are contested by
others who claim that Osama was influenced by the Egyptian ideologue Sayyid
Qutb whose writings led him to the path of terrorism[1]. The Soviet Union’s ill-advised move into Afghanistan in
December, 1979, will go down in history as the main cause that
internationalised jihad. The United States, pumped in by the desire to destroy
the Soviet Union, rushed millions of dollars worth of sophisticated arms
through Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency, the ISI into Afghanistan. The
jihad was funded by Saudi money, and donations from rich and poor Muslims.
Muslim youth from different parts of the world converged into Pakistan for arms
training to participate in the jihad against the Soviet ‘infidels’. Dr Abdullah
Yusuf Azzam, a Palestinian born in Jordan’s West Bank in 1941, and a PhD in
Islamic jurisprudence from Egypt’s Al Azhar University, inspired Arab youth to
the way of Islamic radicalism like no other. Among his most ardent students was
Osama bin Laden and his deputy in the al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri. Abdullah Azzam
saw the struggle in Afghanistan as a model for future struggles to establish a
Muslim Caliphate unifying all Muslim lands. Azzam adopted the pan-Islamic ideal
as opposed to nationalists who were fighting entrenched regimes in countries
like Egypt, refusing to accept artificial boundaries between Muslim lands. It is
this significant shift that, according to experts, has led to the pan-Islamic
radicalism that founded the al Qaeda[2].
In
Pakistan, the military dictator, Zia-ul-Haq, was looking for legitimacy for his
government after deposing the elected Prime Minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, in a
military coup in 1977, and thereafter having him hanged in 1979 in an alleged
case of murder. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan made Pakistan a frontline
state in the confrontation against Soviet power. The Americans and Saudis needed
Pakistan’s wholehearted cooperation in the jihad against the Soviets. Two other
factors also played a crucial role at this stage. The rise of Imam Khomeini in
Iran, and the support the Iranians gave the Shias of Pakistan on the one side,
and to counter this, the Saudi Arabian support for the Sunni Wahabis and the
growth of the Madrassas funded by Saudi money on the other helped to spread
sectarianism and radicalism among the youth of Pakistan[3].
The
Zia years in Pakistan witnessed the influence of the Saudi Arabian brand of
Wahabism, an extreme interpretation of Islam according to which Sufis and their
shrines are considered un-Islamic, and those who visit these places are
idolaters. Saudi Arabia poured millions of dollars into Pakistani madrassas where
this form of extreme Islam, intolerant of other interpretations, was taught to
youngsters, mainly to check Shia Iran. These madrassas became jihadist
factories
It was around this time that the Pakistani
nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was stealing secrets of bomb making from
gullible European firms, to facilitate Pakistan’s atomic bomb. The Pakistani
nuclear bomb was fully operational by 1987, in no small measure due to the
active help received from the Chinese, and the American decision to look away
from the bomb making activity of Pakistan[4].
Pakistan
had two major issues with its neighbours, Afghanistan and India. Both were left
overs of British rule. “Around the year 1800, the entire Pashto-speaking
belt(from the Southern and Eastern Afghanistan to the right banks of river
Indus in the North-Western Frontier and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan)
formed a part of the kingdom of Afghanistan”[5]. In Afghanistan, British attempts to subjugate
it in the nineteenth century had failed. After agreements with the Afghan King,
in the late nineteenth century, a line, called the Durand Line, was drawn that
divided the Pashtuns between Afghanistan and what is now Pakistan. Neither the
Pashtuns nor Afghanistan recognizes this line. As the tribes were unruly, the
British left them outside the pale of their laws. Even now, the Pakistan
government’s diktats do not reach into the tribal areas. The tribes have their
own customs and traditions, and run their affairs. Pakistan wants a government in
Afghanistan that is friendly and sympathetic to it mainly because of the
Pashtun issue-they want the Durand line to be the boundary between Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Neither the Pashtuns nor the Afghan government are willing to
accept that[6].
Pakistan
has already had three wars with India over Kashmir, and failed each time to
snatch that state from India. Zia, the Pakistani dictator, saw a fine
opportunity to extend the jihad in Afghanistan to Kashmir, and was confident
the Americans will not stand in his way. With the help of the Jamaat-e-Islami of
Pakistan, whose members had been inducted into the Federal government, Zia
started extensive preparations to train Kashmiri youth for jihad. (Pakistan:
Between the Mosque and the Military, Hussain Haqqani Page 273). As soon as he
took power, Zia launched an Islamisation drive in Pakistan, declaring that
Islamic laws will be enforced and an Islamic society established[7].
This
was the political environment in Pakistan when the holy jihad against the Soviets
started, training camps coming up in the frontier regions to train Afghan youth
who had poured into Pakistan following the invasion, radicalised Pakistani
youth, and the Muslim youth, especially Arabs, that were rushing to Pakistan
for training and onward journey to Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden came to
Pakistan for the cause, with his millions of dollars and training as an
engineer, and with Abdulla Azzam set up the Services Bureau to assist the Arab
youth to settle and then go onward for jihad. He was encouraged by the Saudi
government and assisted by the Pakistanis in the effort. In the course of the
Afghan jihad, with his passion for jihad, access to millions of dollars and
skills he had developed as an engineer, he was able to capture the imagination
of Arab youth who followed him. He established the al Qaeda in 1988, as the jihad
against Afghanistan successfully concluded, to consolidate the international
net-work that he had established during the jihad with the avowed objective of
bringing Islamic revolution in the Muslim world and to resist the West in the
Middle-East.
Sheikh Abdullah Azzam
was assassinated, along with his son and two others, in November, 1989 in
Peshawar while on his way for Friday prayers. At the end of the Afghan war, the
Afghan-Arabs, as the mostly non-Afghan volunteers who fought the Soviets were known
returned to their respective countries or went to Somalia, the Balkans and
Chechnya to join their brethren in the on-going conflicts in these countries.
This helped the al Qaeda increase its reach and later helped cultivate the
second and third generations of Al Qaeda terrorists.
Kuwait’s invasion by
Iraq in 1990 was followed by the first Gulf War. This gave an opportunity for
the sole super power, the U.S., to exhibit its mastery in modern weaponry and station
its forces in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s
most sacred shrines. This was a red rag for Osama who was vocal in his
opposition of the Americans. He met the Saudi rulers and requested permission
to use his Jihadis instead of the American troops to drive the Iraqis out of
Kuwait, and failing in his bid, started speaking against the Saudi rulers. He aimed
at deposing the ruling Saudi royal family and install an Islamic regime in its place.
The Saudi regime subsequently deported bin Laden in 1992 and revoked his
citizenship in 1994.
Osama bin Laden
received a warm welcome in Sudan. He earned millions through his construction
and agricultural activities, and there was plenty of area to train his
followers in jihad. His friend al Zawahiri joined him there.
Several major terror
attacks between 1991 and 1996 bore the imprint of al Qaeda, including the
bombing of two hotels in Aden, Yemen, which targeted American troops on way to
Somalia on a peacekeeping mission. It also gave massive assistance to Somali
militias, who were successful in bringing about the eventual withdrawal of U.S.
forces in 1994 through terrorist actions. The terrorist attacks against the
U.S. military in Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh in November, 1995 and the June 1996
Khobar Towers bombing could not be linked to Osama for lack of evidence, though
he praised the attacks. Similarly there is no evidence to suggest any link
between bin Laden and the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, though its
perpetrator Ramzi Yousuf is reported to have used Osama’s guest house in
Pakistan (Peshawar) for hiding from the Americans.
Al Qaeda continued
its terrorist activities, which included, in collaboration with Zawahiri’s
group an attempt on the life of the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Addis Ababa.
The Sudanese government itself came under international pressure for its covert
role in the assassination attempt. It finally had to show the door to bin
Laden, who had to move to Afghanistan, which was gradually coming under the
Taliban at that time. He blamed America for his troubles.
Osama bin Laden
arrived in Afghanistan in early 1996, after he was compelled to leave Sudan due
to international pressure on that government. Steve Coll, in his magnificent
work Ghost Wars has written about the lavish construction projects and generous
donations that bin Laden made to the Taliban’s coffers when it was struggling
to establish itself in Afghanistan. This fostered an intimate relationship
between bin Laden and the Taliban leadership.
In Afghanistan, bin Laden
escalated his anti-American tirade. On August 23, 1996, bin Laden issued al
Qaeda’s first “declaration of war” against America: “declaration of jihad
against the Americans occupying the Land of the Two Holy Mosques (Saudi
Arabia); expel the heretics from the Arabian Peninsula.” His message was
addressed to his Muslim brothers in the whole world and especially in the
Arabian Peninsula.
In February 1998 bin
Laden and several leading Muslim militant groups declared the formation of a
coalition called the International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Jews and
Crusaders to fight the U.S. Its members
included al Qaeda, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad led by Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the
Egyptian Islamic Group, and organizations engaged in Kashmir and Bangladesh.
Bin Laden was appointed to head the Front’s council (shura). The militants
signed a fatwa (religious opinion) outlining the Front’s ideology and goals.
The fatwa was published in a London-based Arabic paper, Al Quds Al Arabi; it
called on all Muslims to “kill the Americans and their allies - civilians and
military,” wherever they may be.
On 7 August 1998,
which happened to be the seventh anniversary of the landing of American troops
in Saudi Arabia, teams of al Qaeda bombed the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya,
and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, killing more than 200 people, including 12
Americans. US investigators, who swarmed into the two countries in hundreds,
were able to piece together evidence to directly link the bombings with Osama
bin Laden through phone calls that Osama had made to certain suspect number in
Yemen before and after the bombings. One of the bombers who had not died and
had been picked up revealed the plans that were made by Osama and his close
advisors in Afghanistan, where the bomber, a Saudi Arabian, had gone for
training. He warned the Americans that the embassy attacks were only
diversionary, and that the most destructive attack on America is taking shape,
and will take place inside America[8]. An angry America retaliated by attacking targets in Sudan and the
al Qaeda’s Khost and Jalalabad training camp in Afghanistan.
A spokesman of the ruling Taliban, Mullah Abdullah, said that
bin Laden was safe and no damage was done to any of his companions. Abdullah
said the U.S. attacks were in Khost, about 90 miles south of the capital,
Kabul, and on Jalalabad, 60 miles east of Kabul. Mullah Omar, the supreme
leader of the Taliban said they would never hand over bin Laden to the United
States.
In October 2000, al
Qaeda bombed the U.S.S. Cole, an American guided-missile destroyer in Aden,
Yemen, killing 17 American servicemen. President Clinton, in his final days of
Presidency, could not decide on plans to neutralise Osama bin Laden, who was
then staying in a farm with his family and body guards in the outskirts of
Kandahar in Afghanistan. The biggest favour that bin Laden did for the Taliban
was when two al Qaeda terrorists went to meet Commander Ahmad Shah Massoud of
the Northern Alliance, which was fighting the Taliban, in the guise of
journalists, and killed him in a suicide attack. Bin Laden’s al Qaeda committed
its most destructive and devastating attack on September 11, 2001, when 19 al
Qaeda operatives hijacked four passenger planes and drove two into the Twin
Towers in New York City and one into the Pentagon; a fourth plane crashed in
rural Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in the attack.
The whole world was
shocked at the sheer audacity and scale of the terrorist attack. There had to
be a swift and devastating response from the only super power in the World. The
Taliban refused to hand-over Osama bin Laden to the US. The U.S. declared war on
terror, and invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 to dismantle al-Qaeda and the
Taliban. Al-Qaeda's infrastructure in the country was destroyed and their
military commander, Muhammed Atef, was killed. Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri,
however, escaped from the Tora Bora caves where they had rushed after 9/11,
when the Americans bombarded the caves. They escaped to the border areas
straddling the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. From their hide-outs they released
audio and video messages to the Arab media from time to time, attacking America
and her allies.
Al-Qaeda's leadership oversees a loosely organized network of
cells. It recruits members from thousands of "Arab Afghan" veterans
of the Afghan Jihad, and radicals around the world. It has a small infrastructure
that is mobile and decentralized—each cell operates independently with its
members not knowing the identity of other cells. Local operatives rarely know
anyone higher up in the organization's hierarchy. According to a report “‘Al-Qaeda
differs significantly from more traditional terrorist organizations. It does
not depend on the sponsorship of a political state, and, unlike the PLO or the
IRA, it is not defined by a particular conflict. Instead, al Qaeda operates as
a franchise. It provides financial and logistical support, as well as name
recognition, to terrorist groups operating in such diverse places as the
Philippines, Algeria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Somalia,
Yemen, and Kashmir. Furthermore, local groups may act in the name of al-Qaeda
in order to bolster their own reputation—even if they are not receiving support
from the organization’. The al Qaeda aims
to drive Americans and American influence out of all Muslim nations, especially
Saudi Arabia; it aims to destroy Israel; and it aims to topple pro-Western
dictatorships around the Middle East and it also aims to unite all Muslims and
establish an Islamic nation adhering to the rule of the first Caliphs[9].” Though there is at reference to Kashmir there
is no evidence to suggest that either al Qaeda or any of its franchisees
operated there till date.
The war on terror was
carried into Iraq in March, 2003, citing links between al Qaeda and Saddam
Hussein. This claim was not true. Al Qaeda in Iraq came into existence soon
thereafter, led by the fierce Jordanian, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Salafi Jihadi
who declared his allegiance to Osama bin Laden. It indulged in wanton killings
of civilians apart from attacking Iraqi government and American targets.
Zarqawi was killed in US action in 2006, which brought condemnation from Osama.
On March 11, 2004,
Spain faced its worst terrorist attack: over 200 people were killed and 1,400
injured when 10 explosions occurred in 4 trains in Madrid. Spain’s
participation in the US war on terror was cited as the reason for the attack by
al Qaeda inspired terrorists. By April, a dozen suspects, most of them
Moroccan, were arrested for the bombings. On April 4, several suspects blew
themselves up during a police raid to avoid capture. Many Spaniards blamed
their prime minister's staunch support of the U.S. and the war in Iraq for
making Spain an al Qaeda target. The bombings occurred three days before
national general elections, and resulted in the defeat of the ruling party,
though it was predicted they would win.
London suffered its
worst terrorist bombing since World War II on 7 July, 2005, a series of
coordinated suicide attacks. On 7 July morning, four home grown Islamic
terrorists detonated bombs 3 aboard the underground trains and a fourth on a
double-decker bus. 52 people were killed in the attacks, and over 700 injured.
In video-taped messages recorded before the bombings, the suicide bombers
blamed the UK government’s support for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
praised Sheikh Osama. A year after the bombing, British investigators concluded
that the links between the bombers and al-Qaeda were marginal. The four
bombers, all born in Britain, had all visited Pakistan, but there was no evidence
of any direct support from al-Qaeda.
Many of the worst bombings
attributed to al-Qaeda, like the Bali bombing, the Madrid train bombings, the London
train bombings, and the one in Algeria, are believed to have been carried out
by terrorist groups who drew inspiration than any material support from al Qaeda.
‘Al-Qaeda has been more than happy to take credit for the various bombings, but
it is thought that it has offered philosophical motivation more than a direct
support for the atrocities committed by these splinter groups’. According to many experts al-Qaeda itself has
just a small core of adherents, but serves as the virulent inspiration to
countless violent Islamic extremists[10].
The war on terror has
cost the United States dearly some $1 trillion, and a few thousand dead. According
to U.S. government analysts al Qaeda has forged closer ties with Pakistani
militants enhancing its capabilities to attack the United States. The Pakistani
militants have given al Qaeda leaders safe haven in remote areas to train
recruits. The NATO operations in Afghanistan, and the Drone attacks inside
Pakistan’s badlands in North and South Waziristan have taken a heavy toll of
the al Qaeda’s leadership, as well as those of the other radical groups
operating in the area. However the Americans believed that though seriously
damaged al Qaeda remained the country’s number one threat.
According to a Rand
Corporation study, “the evidence suggests that al Qaeda, although weakened,
remains as intent as ever on its worldwide terrorist campaign. But it faces a
more difficult and dangerous operating environment than it did 10 years ago and
has necessarily changed its approach. Instead of conducting large-scale
attacks, which are difficult to plan and implement in the glare of improved
U.S. intelligence, al Qaeda seeks American home grown recruits to implement a
campaign of individual jihad and do-it-yourself terrorism”. Due to aggressive
counter-terrorist campaign, including legal and improved investigative and
intelligence work, most of the plots hatched by the so-called home grown
terrorists or would be terrorists were nipped in the bud. According to the same
study, “A total of 176 Americans have been indicted, arrested, or otherwise
identified as jihadist terrorists or supporters since 9/11. The 176 individuals
were involved in 82 cases, 20 of which were announced in 2010, as compared with
15 in 2009.”
In the second half of
the nineties, with the Taliban, their proxies, in power in Afghanistan,
Pakistan was in a happy state. Training of Kashmiri militants could be
organized in Afghanistan, giving deniability to the Pakistanis. The Indians
could be kept out of Afghanistan, a strategic objective. The Jihad in Kashmir,
and attacks in the rest of India could be encouraged through Lashkar-e-Tayeba
and the Jaish-e-Mohammad, keeping pressure on India. All this changed with
9/11. Pakistan had to join the war on terror, withdraw its support for the Taliban,
and provide access to the US forces for operations in Afghanistan.
But Pakistan continued to provide inspiration
to radicals wanting to continue al Qaeda’s war against America and the West.
Richard Reid, the criminal-turned terrorist, is an example. He spent time in
Pakistan and Afghanistan, and trained with al Qaeda operatives to explode the
explosive hidden in a shoe. Passengers of the American Airlines Flight Number
63 from Paris to Miama, Florida, on 22 December, 2001, had a providential escape
when Reid failed to detonate the shoe bomb.
It is now known that the Pakistanis under
President Musharraf played a double game-they protected the Taliban leadership
in safe houses in Quetta, though they cooperated with the Americans and helped
in the arrest of hundreds of al Qaeda operatives, including senior commanders
like Khalid Mohammad, the brain behind 9/11. The ISI also maintained close
links with the Afghan group of Jalaluddin Haqqani, a fierce Afghan Jihadist who
had fought the Soviets, and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani who operated mostly from
their base in North Waziristan and carried out attacks on the American and NATO
forces in eastern Afghanistan. They carried out suicide attacks inside
Afghanistan, including in Kabul. The attack on the Indian embassy in July,
2008, was carried out by the Haqqani group on the behest of the ISI to check
the Indians who were hugely popular in Afghanistan with their construction and
other developmental activities. The double game of the Pakistanis finally fell
apart when the radical groups that had grown thanks to the State’s
encouragement went out of control, with their headquarters in the Red Mosque in
Islamabad. Military action in 2007 to flush out armed militants from the mosque
resulted in the deaths of over a hundred people, and was a “turning point in
Pakistan’s inexorable slide towards religious extremism and violence. Lal
Masjid, as it is locally known, became a rallying cry for the Pakistani Taliban
who have declared war on the central government” said the Times Magazine.
Ilyas Kashmiri, a
dreaded terrorist who was once the favourite of the military establishment for
his attacks on the Indian security forces, and who was inactive after he fell
out of favour of the establishment in Pakistan, went on to lead his 313
Brigade, closely affiliated with the al Qaeda, against the Pakistan military
after the Lal Masjid operation. Though reported to be dead in 2008, he returned
to action, and was planning, with the notorious David Headley, an American of
Pakistani origin who had spied for the Lashkar-e-Tayeba before they attacked
Mumbai in November, 2008, to attack the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten’s
headquarters for printing cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad. He was once again
reported killed in a US Drone attack, but the Americans have not confirmed this
news.
The Mumbai terror
attacks unleashed by the Lashkar-e-Tayeba are a study by itself. Sixty hours of
terror in the Taj and Oberoi Hotels, the CST railway station, the Chabad house,
Cama Hospital and Leopold hotel frequented by foreigners had resulted in the
deaths of 166 persons, including several foreigners. The fact that the attack
came from the Sea and the simultaneous use of 5 teams of two terrorists each was
a novel style, sending shivers across the world of such attacks taking place
elsewhere. But for the fortuitous capture of one terrorist alive, and the
tracing of his roots to Pakistan, that country would have denied and continued
to deny its involvement in the dastardly attack.
The L-e-T was widely known to be a proxy of
the Pakistan military against India, but its global ambitions are gradually
being understood. Several persons of Pakistani origin have been arrested and
sentenced in the United States for conspiring with the L-e-T. Recently, a young
Pakistani Jubair Ahmad, who had settled in the United States, was apprehended
for uploading objectionable videos pertaining to L-e-T trainings and showing
its patron, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed addressing crowds in Pakistan. The Pakistani
was in touch with Saeed’s son, Talha Saeed, who was guiding him in preparing
the video.
Faisal Shahzad, an
American of Pakistani origin and the son of a Pakistani Air Vice Marshall
developed links with Jihadists and received bomb making training in a camp run
by the Pakistani Taliban in Waziristan. He prepared and placed a bomb in an old
Nissan Pathfinder that he had purchased and left the car with the device at
Times Square in New York on 1 May, 2010. Had it detonated, many innocent
persons could have been killed. Due to technical reasons, the bomb did not go
off, and smoke coming from the car alerted citizens which led to the discovery
of the failed attempt to bomb the Times Square. He was arrested and pleaded
guilty. He called himself a Muslim soldier, and warned of more attacks on
America. US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, warned Pakistan that “.if,
heaven forbid, an attack like this that we can trace back to Pakistan were to
have been successful, there would be severe consequences.”[11]
The Kerry-Lugar Bill,
granting 7.5 billion dollars aid to Pakistan over a period of 5 years, with
stringent conditions that the Secretary of State certify every six months that
the civilian government controls the Pakistani military came for severe
criticism in Pakistan, and showed US determination to no longer give aid
without strings to the Pakistanis which the Army was using to further its own
agenda. This has introduced strains in the US-Pakistan relationship, as the
Pakistan Army had continued to maintain its secret relationship with the
Taliban, and the Haqqani network, though it was detrimental to the US forces in
Afghanistan
The Raymond Davis affair,
where a CIA agent was held by the Pakistanis over charges of murder, produced
fresh strains in the already weakening relationship.
It is in this
environment that the ultra-secret operation of locating Osama bin Laden by the
CIA bore fruition, and they located him in a sprawling mansion in Abbotabad, at
a short distance from the Pakistan military’s prestigious academy for its elite
officers at Kakul, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In a night operation on 2
May this year, personally monitored by President Obama and his closest
advisors, a team of US Seals in two helicopters swooped down on the mansion and
killed Osama and took away his dead body, together with loads of material
stored in computers that could give the Americans invaluable information about
the al Qaeda. Osama’s corpse was soon thereafter buried in the Sea to deny his
followers any rallying point over his grave. It was a double blow to Pakistan
and especially its Armed Forces-that despite its denial Osama bin Laden, the
architect of 9/11 was living in the heart of Pakistan close to its prestigious
military establishment and that neither Pakistan’s Air force nor Army could get
wind of the operation or stop it as it was a clear violation of Pakistan’s
sovereignty. The Americans rubbed salt into the wound by saying that they had
not taken Pakistan into confidence for fear of the information getting leaked,
and President Obama asserting that if any other high value target was located
in Pakistan, they will not hesitate to repeat the operation. Thus US- Pakistan
relations appear to be at very low ebb, though America is not likely to
completely cut off relations with that country due to the fact that future
terror attacks on the West are likely to emanate from there, and the risk of
Pakistan’s growing nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of the Jihadists
which could have catastrophic consequences..
Anwar al-Awlaki is an
American of Yemeni origin. A radical calling for attacks on the United States,
the Americans believe he is a talent recruiter and motivator for the al Qaeda
and all its franchisees. It is now known that three of the 9/11 hijackers had
heard his sermons before the attacks, and there is suspicion that he may have
known about the attacks before they took place, though there is no proof. He
left for Yemen in 2002 where is now in hiding, from government and American
forces. Apart from the 9/11 bombers, his sermons have inspired others to commit
attacks, like Nidal Malik Hasan, an American army officer who shot and killed
13 soldiers and wounded 30 others at Fort Hood in November, 2009. Faisal
Shahzad, the Times Square bomber was inspired by Awlaki. Umar Farouk
Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian national of a rich father and known as the underwear
bomber attempted to detonate a plastic bomb hidden in his underwear while on
board Northwest Airlines Flight 253 from Amsterdam to Michigan on 25 December,
2009. He was reported to be in close touch with Awlaki. The US President has
ordered Awlaki’s death due to the threat that he holds to the American
Homeland.
After the killing of
Osama bin Laden though the charismatic face of the al Qaeda has been
eliminated, it is still too early to right off the organization. The Egyptian
Ayman al Zawahiri has since taken over the leadership of the al Qaeda. Though
several of the top commanders and leaders of the al Qaeda have been killed by
American Drone attacks in the FATA region of Pakistan, al Qaeda is known to
have mutated with franchisees operating in different parts of the world, like
Yemen, Somalia etc, apart from its strong support base in Pakistan. However its
capability to mount spectacular terror attacks like the 9/11 attacks has been
severely curtailed, due to incessant American Drone attacks that have killed
several operational commanders. Even in Somalia, the civil war has driven the
al Qaeda in Arab Peninsula operatives into the mountains, and severely degraded
their capabilities. Experts however feel that there can be grass root fighters,
working all by themselves, especially of European or American origin,who can
mount attacks on the US or its allies. Ilyas Kashmiri, chief of the 313 Brigade
and affiliated to the al Qaeda, was once again reported to have been killed in
Waziristan in a drone attack. However, there was no confirmation, and there are
reports that he was not killed, but was only spreading such reports to escape
US attention. He had told David Headley that he has contacts in Europe who can
mount attacks there. These are possibilities that cannot be ruled out.
Even after the United
States withdraws from Afghanistan a decision has been taken to maintain bases
there with operational capabilities to keep a watch over Pakistan’s tribal
areas from where most of the conspiracies are hatched to attack it. Ayman al
Zawahiri, the current al Qaeda Amir has recently given a call to all Muslims to
attack America which has killed the ‘Imam of the Mujahideen’ (Osama bin Laden)
and thrown his corpse into the sea. He has exhorted all Muslims to seek to attack
America so that history can say that a criminal state had spread corruption on
earth, and Allah sent her his servants who made her a lesson for others and
left her as a memory, according to Stratfor. But it is also known that Zawahiri
is himself on the run in Waziristan. Documents seized by the Americans from
Osama’s hide-out in Abbotabad reveal his frustration at his followers running
scarred from the American Drones. Zawahiri has pledged his loyalty to Mullah
Omar, believing that the Taliban would come to power in Afghanistan once the
Americans withdraw, where he can get refuge. Mullah Omar, in his Eid greetings,
has studiously avoided any reference to al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden, having
once been bitten for his close relationship to the al Qaeda chief ending in his
losing his country and having to once again take refuge in Pakistan.
While addressing a
gathering in Bangalore during an official visit in July, 2010, David Cameron,
the British Prime Minister said that Pakistan was promoting the ‘export of
terror’ in Afghanistan and around the world. He added that ‘Pakistan had links
with terror groups, and was double dealing by aligning itself with both the
West and the forces it was opposing.[12]’ The links Pakistan’s military had with the Haqqani group
responsible for attacks on the American and other NATO forces in Afghanistan,
and the fact that they were sheltering Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura for
gaining influence in Afghanistan, and their links with the L-e-T only reflect
the truthfulness of Cameron’s assessment. The world’s focus would once again be
on the FATA region of Pakistan, the base for the al Qaeda, the Pakistani
Taliban, foreign militants from different parts of the world and the Haqqani
group, where all terror conspiracies are hatched, mainly against the Americans
and the West. Having once suffered a catastrophic attack on 9/11, the Americans
will not rest till all these threats are totally eliminated. For this, they
will be happy to work with Pakistan if possible; but will not hesitate to work
all by themselves if necessary.
Where does all this
leave India Pakistan relations? While peaceful relations between the two
nuclear armed neighbours, with development of trade, commerce and other common
links would be desirable, and the Indian Prime Minister has been taking one
after other initiative for this despite terrorist attacks like 26/11 emanating
from Pakistan and the consequent criticism at home, with the current set-up in
Pakistan where the Army plays a pre-eminent role especially where it concerns
relations with India, this is highly unlikely. The Army and especially the ISI
have their own agenda against India, deeply rooted in vengeance over Pakistan’s
break-up of 1971, to dis-member India. Unless revolutionary changes take place
in Pakistan where the civilian government controls the Army and the ISI, and
they are reformed of their hate filled attitude towards this country, there is
hardly any possibility of India-Pakistan relations undergoing any positive
changes in the near future.
[1]
www.sinningslave.wordpress.com
[2]
http://www.pwhce.org/azzam.html
[3]
www.ceri-sciencespo.com/archive/octo00/artmaz.pdf
[4]
Dr K. Subrahmanyam----China concluded its treaty with Z. A. Bhutto in June 1976
to proliferate nuclear weapons to Pakistan. The US formally agreed to look away
from this proliferation in 1982, during the talks between the Pakistani
delegation led by Agha Shahi and US Secretary of State, Alexander Haig. During
this period Dr A. Q. Khan dealt with China and obtained the Chinese design of
the bomb. According to the very recent disclosures of the Dutch Prime Minister
Ruud Lubbers, CIA interceded twice in 1976 and 1985 with the Dutch government
to save Dr A. Q. Khan from prosecution. The Pakistanis assembled their bomb in
1987 and the US delayed acknowledging Pakistani bomb-making till 1990:
http://www.usindiafriendship.net/viewpoints1/5rejoinders.htm
[5]
www.merapeshawar.com/literature/item/34-evaluation-of-pushto?tmpl=component&print=1
[6]
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/pakistans-british-drawn-borders/?scp=1&sq=pakistan%20durand%20line&st=cse
[7]
http://www.storyofpakistan.com/articletext.asp?artid=A110
[8]
Interrogation of Mohammed al-Owhali, Saudi Arabian member. of al Qaeda by FBI:
The Looming Tower Al-Qaeda’s Road to 9/11; Lawrence Wright page 279
[9]
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/al-qaeda-terrorism.html
[10]
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/al-qaeda-terrorism.html
[11]
www.nation.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/politics/08-may-2010/hillary-clinton-warns-pakistan-of-severe-consequences
[12]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/7913905/David-Cameron-Pakistan-is-promoting-the-export-of-terror.html
Mathrubhumi Year Book 2012
Mathrubhumi Year Book 2012
